Wisconsin early voting lags in biggest Democrat strongholds

A close United States Senate race should drive a higher Republican turnout for the Nov. 5 presidential election in Wisconsin, with early voting in key areas at 50% or better of the total votes cast in the 2020 election.

With its 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin is a key swing state that has drawn regular attention in recent months from former President Donald J. Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump spoke before a packed house at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee on Nov. 1, not far from the Wisconsin State Fair Park Expo Center, where Harris rallied supporters.

“The race is within a point, point and a half, not only on the presidential side but in the U.S. Senate race, with incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin being opposed by Eric Hovde,” Wisconsin GOP Chairman Brian Schimming said on Steve Bannon’s "War Room" Nov. 2. “It’s very tight here.”

Schimming said Wisconsin has a history of close contests.

“We've had 12 races in 24 years that have been decided by less than 30,000 votes,” Schimming said, “including [Sen.] Ron Johnson's 27,000-vote win in 2022.”

Republican U.S. Senate challenger Hovde has pulled even with incumbent Democratic Sen. Baldwin, who first won election in 2012 and was re-elected in 2018. The RealClearPolitics average has Baldwin at 48.6% and Hovde at 47.2%.

Early voting has lagged in some key Democrat areas for the Nov. 5 election, state figures show.

Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde addresses a packed house at the Donald J. Trump rally at Milwaukee's Fiserv Forum on Nov. 1, 2024. Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images

In Milwaukee, Wisconsin’s largest city and chief Democrat stronghold, 2024 early voting accounted for a fairly anemic 35% of the November 2020 vote total, according to the Wisconsin Elections Commission. Wisconsin does not track voting by party.

More than 1.34 million absentee ballots have been returned in Wisconsin for the Nov. 5 general election, meaning about 37% of registered voters cast early votes, the WEC reported.

As of Nov. 1 in the city of Madison, 2024 early voting made up 48% of voter totals from the 2020 presidential election. In the city of Green Bay, the early voting figure was 37%.

In historically Republican areas of the state, early voting stands at 50% or higher. In Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee Counties, 2024 early votes accounted for 55% of 2020 election totals.

Of those casting absentee ballots in those three GOP counties, at least 66% voted in person, according to WEC figures.

Statewide, 1.34 million absentee ballots had been returned as of Nov. 1 — or 41% of the total votes cast in November 2020.

As of Nov. 1, Wisconsin had 3,658,236 active registered voters, according to the WEC. In the 2020 presidential election, 3,294,872 ballots were cast.

Wisconsin allows voters to register at the polls on Election Day.

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