The blue wall is crumbling, and Republicans are chipping away at it

Democratic "blue wall" Senate candidates have turned away from Vice President Kamala Harris in an attempt to regain their footing amid their dwindling polling advantages.

Most recently, Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania released an ad campaign Friday distancing himself from his own party and aligning himself with former President Donald Trump. The ad paints Casey as an "independent" who has "bucked" President Joe Biden and "sided with Trump." The ad notably omits his Democratic Party affiliation and his lockstep voting record.

The tonal shift in Casey's campaign comes as his Republican challenger, Dave McCormick, narrows the incumbent Democrat's lead. Casey currently holds just a 1.9-point average lead, a far cry from his 7.7-point advantage in August. With just two weeks until the election, Cook Political Report shifted the race on Monday from "lean Democrat" to "toss up."

“We knew this race was a toss-up when Bob Casey started running ads claiming he was President Trump’s best friend even though he voted to impeach him twice," Philip Letsou, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement Monday. "Bob Casey is desperately trying to throw Kamala Harris under the bus to save his own political career — it won’t work.”

Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin has similarly avoided tethering herself to Biden and Harris. During her Friday-night debate against Republican candidate Eric Hovde, Baldwin focused on issue areas while her challenger hammered her as an extension of the Biden-Harris administration.

A recent ad from Baldwin's campaign also focused on her bipartisan policy achievements, saying she "got President Trump to sign her Made in America bill" as well as getting "President Biden to make it permanent." Baldwin's reliably blue voting record, however, disputes her attempts to appeal to key moderate and independent voters she will need to secure her re-election.

“These Senate Democrats all voted to impeach President Trump twice, so it is surprising that they are now running ads praising his work as President," Mike Berg, communications director for the NRSC, told The Hill.

'Disingenuousness aside, these are the type of ads you run if you think your nominee for president is going to lose.'

Baldwin's poll numbers may have been what sounded the alarm, with Hovde trailing the incumbent by just two points compared to his 6.7-point deficit in August. The Wisconsin Senate race also went from "lean Democrat" to "toss up" in early October, according to Cook Political Report.

Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin, who is wrapping up her third consecutive term in the House, is also competing for the Michigan Senate seat against Republican candidate Mike Rogers. Although she has campaigned alongside Harris, Slotkin has also tried to moderate her positions and appeal to independents.

While Slotkin has turned her attention to her bipartisan accomplishments, her voting record regarding electric vehicle mandates specifically may come back to haunt her. EV mandates, which would require manufacturers to boost production and uphold EV quotas, are particularly unpopular among Michiganders. Despite distancing herself from EV mandates, Slotkin has repeatedly voted to support them.

"Autoworkers are the backbone of Michigan's economy, but now their jobs are at risk because Elissa Slotkin refuses to stand up to Harris-Biden EV mandates that will devastate Michigan's auto industry," Maggie Abboud, spokeswoman for the NRSC, said in a statement. "Michigan autoworkers deserve a senator who will stand up for them."

Like Casey and Baldwin, Slotkin's change in tone comes after concerning poll numbers show the Democrats' advantage is slipping. Slotkin is currently an average of 2.1 points ahead of Rogers, which is less than half of her 5.4-point advantage in September. The Michigan Senate race is also rated as a "toss up," according to Cook Political Report.

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