Poll: More than half of Wyoming GOP primary voters will vote for anyone but Liz Cheney

As House Republicans seem increasingly likely to force conference chairwoman Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) out of leadership, a new poll of Wyoming Republicans indicates primary voters are ready to toss Cheney out of Congress.

A WPA Intelligence poll commissioned by the Club for Growth PAC, a grassroots organization that supports candidates who believe in limited government and economic freedom, found that 52% of Republican voters in Wyoming will vote for anyone but Cheney in the 2022 primary.

The beleaguered congresswoman's favorability is 36 points under water, with just 29% of GOP voters having a favorable view of Cheney and a whopping 65% viewing her unfavorably. Only 14% of voters say they will vote to re-elect Cheney regardless of who runs against her. Another 31% say they will consider another candidate before making up their mind.

These numbers paint a clear picture: Unless something drastic and unforeseen happens, Liz Cheney will not be re-elected in 2022.

It's an astonishing fall for the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, who himself served for ten years in the House of Representatives and once held the very leadership position she seems likely to lose.

First elected to Congress in 2016, Liz Cheney was well respected by the Republican establishment and seen as a rising star in the party. Rush Limbaugh once called her "Republican Party royalty" and praised her as a solid conservative. After winning re-election in 2018, she was elected to a leadership position as conference chair, the No. 3 position for Republicans in the House and a role that is largely responsible for the conference's messaging to voters.

Cheney once may have had a bright future in the GOP. But she is out of step with Republican voters on the key issue of former President Donald Trump.

As she herself explained in a recent op-ed for the Washington Post, Cheney holds Trump responsible for provoking the violence at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6. She thinks Trump is a liar who is undermining "confidence in the result of elections and the rule of law" by continuing to assert that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent and that Biden's win was illegitimate.

Her convictions led her to vote to impeach the former president, which led Wyoming Republicans to officially censure her and call for her resignation in response. Nevertheless, Cheney has continued to be one of Trump's most outspoken Republican critics.

But opposition to Trump has consequences in the modern Republican Party. House Republicans recognize this, and it is for this reason that Republican Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said this week he has "lost confidence" in her ability to carry the GOP message in leadership.

The congresswoman most likely to succeed Cheney as conference chair is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) who was endorsed for the position by Trump and is well liked in the GOP conference. Stefanik is vocally supportive of Trump and was one of several House Republicans to vote against certifying the Electoral College results for several states that President Joe Biden won.

Interestingly, the Club for Growth — which commissioned the poll on Cheney's favorability — opposes Stefanik for Republican leadership even though she has Trump's support.

According to the club's scorecard of members of Congress, Stefanik is one of the most liberal Republicans in the GOP conference. Though she supports Trump rhetorically, her record in Congress was to vote against major pieces of the president's agenda.

Stefanik voted for amnesty with citizenship for illegal immigrants; voted against the 2017 Trump tax cuts; voted to terminate Trump's emergency declaration at the border; and joined 11 other Republicans to override funding for the border wall. She supported the first version of the "Equality Act" before voting against it after Biden became president. Stefanik also voted with Democrats to force Trump to stay in the Paris climate accord.