Poll expert left 'speechless' when he sees the data showing Trump's 'historic' gains with black voters: 'Holy cow, folks!'

A top CNN analyst revealed Monday that Donald Trump is "careening toward a historic performance" in the 2024 election.

For decades, black voters have overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates, especially for the White House. But that is changing, according to CNN polling expert Harry Enten, who broke down the numbers showing that Trump is benefiting from a significant voter realignment.

'I've just never seen anything like this. I'm speechless.'

As evidence to support his thesis, Enten showed Trump's improvements in the polls over the last four years.

At this point in the 2020 election, then-candidate Joe Biden was winning 86% of the black vote, while Trump was winning just 7% of the vote. Today, Biden is winning 70% while Trump is winning 21% — a net-gain of 30 points for Trump.

"I keep looking for signs that this is going to go back to normal, and I don't see it yet in the polling," Enten said. "If anything, right now, we're careening toward a historic performance for Republican presidential candidates, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades."

The area where Biden is hemorrhaging support, Enten revealed, is among younger black voters, those under age 50.

"Holy cow, folks! Holy cow!" Enten exclaimed. "Look at this: Joe Biden was up by 80 points among this group back at this point in 2020. Look at where that margin has careened down toward: 37 points. That lead has dropped by more than half."

"I've just never seen anything like this. I'm speechless," he admitted.

Whether the polls are correct is a question that can be answered only after voters cast their ballots.

But if the polls are right, then Americans are witnessing a "historic moment," Enten said, because a core constituency of the Democratic Party is now "leaving it in droves."

The phenomenon that Enten highlighted is not isolated.

It's also happening with Hispanic voters and Asian voters, according to the Financial Times, shrinking the Democratic Party's long-held advantage over non-white voters.

John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter at FT, explained:

Part of this is due to fading memories and weakening ties. Black Americans who lived through the civil rights era still support the party at very high levels, but younger generations are wavering. There’s also the weakening correlation between income and voter choice in US politics. The image of the GOP as the party of wealthy country club elites is dimming, opening the door to working- and middle-class voters of all ethnicities.

More ominous for the Democrats is a less widely understood dynamic: many of America’s non-white voters have long held much more conservative views than their voting patterns would suggest. The migration we’re seeing today is not so much natural Democrats becoming disillusioned but natural Republicans realising they’ve been voting for the wrong party.

The good news for Republicans, Burn-Murdoch wrote, is that a "less racially divided America is an America where people vote more based on their beliefs than their identity."

"This is bad news for Democrats," he explained.

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