New Gallup polling reveals massive problem for Democrats since Biden was elected

The newest polling from Gallup found an extraordinary change in party identification that will spell big problems for Democrats in the November elections.

The polling found that more Americans identified as Republicans as opposed to Democrats, and the margin had swung significantly to the Republican side since the last presidential election.

'If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win.'

More Americans had described themselves as Democrats over Republicans since 2004, but the most recent poll shows that 48% say they are Republicans while only 45% say they are Democrats.

This represents a large swing from 2020, when President Joe Biden won the presidency and 48% of respondents said they were Democrats, as opposed to the 43% who said they were Republicans.

That means a total net swing of eight percentage points over just the last four years in favor of Republicans.

And that is especially bad for Democrats because Biden won by a very slim margin in the electoral college despite having a 5% positive net margin in partisan affiliation.

"Party affiliation and voting are strongly predictive of individuals’ vote choices, with the vast majority of identifiers and leaners voting for the candidate of their preferred party," explained Jeffrey Jones, the senior editor for Gallup.

"In years when the advantage was narrower — 2004 and 2016, for example — Republicans won in the electoral college if not also the popular vote," he added.

The findings also corroborate cautionary messages from pollsters like CNN's Harry Enten who say that Democrats need a large margin in polling to overcome the shift towards former President Donald Trump in the last two elections.

"The bottom line is this," said Enten. "If you're a Kamala Harris fan and you wanna rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win."

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