CNN pollster warns Democrats against popping champagne over Harris polling: 'Donald Trump is very much in this race'

While many Democrats are celebrating a surge in support for Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, CNN's polling analyst Harry Enten warns them that former President Donald Trump is likely to gain support based on historical trends.

Enten made the case for the race tightening up on CNN Tuesday.

While Harris is ahead in three swing states — Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — Enten pointed out that polling underestimated Trump's favorability in those states by 9% on average in 2016 and by 5% in 2020.

"The bottom line is this: If you have an idea, if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you wanna rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win."

Enten then pointed to polling that showed enthusiasm for Biden's re-election campaign had actually dropped slightly after Harris seized the nomination, while enthusiasm for Trump had actually increased in the same period.

"The bottom line here is yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we're not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost-certain-to-vote," he explained.

Finally, Enten argued that Trump is more popular generally at this point in the 2024 campaign than he was at the same point in 2020 and at the same point in 2016.

Enten posted video of the segment to his X account.

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