China's hundred-year marathon slows to a crawl amid economic woes and record-low birth rate

China's aspirations of seeing its hundred-year marathon through to displacing the U.S. and becoming global hegemon by 2049 are growing increasingly fantastical. The economic and social problems the Asian nation faced in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic have not gone away. Rather, things have continued to deteriorate.

Fallout of the one-child policy

China faces a worsening demographic crisis, due in part to the Chinese Communist Party's one-child policy as well as to other correlated factors such as a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, higher suicide rates in women than in men, sex-selective abortion, and declining fertility.

The birth rate was over 20 births per 1,000 people in 1990, one decade after the implementation of the one-child policy. Over the next 25 years, the country saw a precipitous decline in the birth rate, which a two-child policy in 2016 was unable to arrest. The rate hit a record low of 7.5 births per 1,000 people in 2021.

Data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics Wednesday indicated the birth rate reached a new low in 2023 of 6.39 per 1,000 people, reported the BBC.

The country's annual population has in turn fallen for a second consecutive year, this time by an estimated 2.08 million people.

"It's not a surprise. They've got one of the lowest fertility rates in the world so this is just what happens - the population stops growing and starts to decline," Stuart Gietel-Basten, a population policy expert at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, told the BBC.

The country's fertility rate in 1950, the year after communists formally took power, was 5.29. The rate dropped to a record low of 1.16 in 2022. Blaze News previously noted that the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development regards 2.1 as the standard for a stable population.

Demographic stability has been further undermined by a sex-ratio imbalance. As of 2021, there were over 34.9 million more men than women in the country, reported Newsweek.

"It's kind of locked in now… this is just the next year in this new era of population stagnation or decline for China," added Gietel-Basten.

The demographic problem has been compounded by economic stress as many of those in China who want and can physically have children reportedly cannot afford to do so.

Economic woes

Data released this week revealed the Chinese economy had allegedly grown at one of the slowest rates in over 30 years. Reuters reported that China's GDP allegedly grew by 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, disappointing many investors and analysts.

"Although the government met its 2023 GDP growth target of 'around 5.0%', achieving the same pace of expansion in 2024 will prove a lot more challenging," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics at Capital Economics.

The China Beige Book International's latest survey suggested, "Any true acceleration (this year) will require either a major global upside surprise or more active government policy."

Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the non-partisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told Newsweek that the regime's latest claims about the country's GDP growth "are just not credible."

"Focusing on China's false GDP figures risks missing the forest for the tree," said Singleton. "The days of China's sky-high growth are over."

"There is no getting around the fact that China is in damage control mode, attempting to project a sense of stability to the international community while grappling with myriad domestic challenges. If ever the cliché 'investor beware' applied, it's now," added Singleton.

The country is struggling with high debt, a stock market in free fall, and a real estate crisis that continues to ravage the sector.

Reuters indicated that amid China's disputed recovery and in the face of concerns about renewed lockdowns, the jobless rate nationwide increased to 5.1% last month and unemployment among Chinese youths ages 16 to 24 also remains high.

The youth unemployment rate skyrocketed to 21.3% in June 2023, prompting the regime to suspend the release of monthly data. The rate allegedly sank to 14.1% in December, but is still high enough to create trouble for the regime, which has promised progressive increases in living standards in exchange for acceptance of its authoritarian rule.

In addition to a potentially restive, largely male youth population, China has to contend with its massive elderly population. The BBC indicated that the retiree population, placing increasing pressure on the health care and pension systems, is projected to increase by 60% to 400 million over the next 10 years.

The Guardian noted that 14% of China's population is over the age of 65 and is on track to have more geriatrics than the entire population of the United States.

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