Can Republicans take back the Senate? Dem strategist reveals Midwest may be the key.

Republican Senate candidates may have a leg up going into November thanks to former President Donald Trump's down-ballot momentum.

The most likely pickup opportunity for the GOP lies in Montana, where Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester is lagging an average of seven points behind his Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, according to RealClearPolling. Other Senate polls across the Blue Wall states are closer, but the Republican Party's policy priorities are tightening races that have historically been layups for the Democratic Party.

“These voters just feel a greater degree of cultural synergy with the Trump-Vance ticket, and it’s having a downwind effect," Len Foxwell, a Democratic strategist based in Maryland, told Blaze News.

"These Senate candidates are in a region of the country where economic concerns such as inflation and cost of living remain paramount," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Voters simply invested a greater degree of trust in Donald Trump's perspective towards the economy, and I think we're seeing that reflected in the Senate races."

Democratic Senate candidates in the Rust Belt, such as incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, are all polling just a few points ahead of their respective Republican challengers.

Republican Senate candidate Eric Hovde of Wisconsin closed in on Baldwin's nearly seven-point advantage from August to just three points in October, despite the fact that she won her seat by 5.6 points in 2012 and 10.8 points in 2018.

In the Michigan race to replace Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Republican candidate Mike Rogers slimmed Slotkin's advantage from five points in August to less than three points in October. At the same time, Stabenow won her seat by 20.8 points in 2012 and 6.5 points in 2018.

Similarly, Republican Senate candidate Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania shrank Casey's eight-point lead in August to just three points in October. In contrast, Casey won his seat by 17.3 points in 2006, 9.1 points in 2012, and 13.1 points in 2018.

The Ohio Senate race reflects the same trend, with incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown currently scraping by with just a 2.6-point average lead over GOP challenger Bernie Moreno. Previously, the three-term senator won his seat by 12.3 points in 2006, by 5.2 points in 2012, and by 6.8 points in 2018.

These polling trends across the Rust Belt and the Midwest are a reflection of a shift toward Trump but, more importantly, away from Vice President Kamala Harris and Democratic policies.

“The fact of the matter is that presidential administrations get the credit when things are going well, and they shoulder the blame when things aren’t," Foxwell continued. "So when voters, not only in the Rust Belt but anywhere in the country, go to the grocery store and see the price of milk and eggs, not to mention gasoline, continue to go up, they’re going to hold the current White House occupant accountable.”

The economy ranks as the top priority, with 28% of Midwestern likely voters saying it is the most important issue in deciding their vote in November, according to the New York Times/Siena poll from Oct. 8. At the same time, 47% of Midwestern likely voters trust Trump to handle the issue they think is most important, while 45% said the same for Harris.

“This election is to be based upon economics," Foxwell told Blaze News. "Victory is going to go to the candidates, be it at the presidential level or in the Senate races, who are able to make the case they represent the straightest, most correct line to economic recovery and prosperity."

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