New Iowa polls are great news for Elizabeth Warren, bad news for Biden

Two newly released post-debate polls of likely Democratic Iowa caucus-goers show Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., surging in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Presumed front-runner former Vice President Joe Biden, on the other hand, seems to be losing steam.

An online survey by Iowa State University found that nearly one-third of likely caucus participants oppose Biden for the Democratic nomination. Warren is the first choice of 24 percent of survey respondents. Biden is tied for second place with Sen. Bernie Sanders, D-Vt., at 16 percent. South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is the only other Democrat registering with double digits at 13 percent.

Another survey conducted by Focus on Rural America, a Democratic group, found a tighter race among likely caucus-goers. In this poll, Biden leads the field with 25 percent support with Warren in a statistical tie at 23 percent. Buttigieg takes third place with 12 percent support and Sanders fourth place with 9 percent.

Remember: These polls are not predictive of the Iowa caucus results. They do, however, show trends, and the clear trend is that right now, Elizabeth Warren is seen by Iowa Democrats as the most viable progressive alternative to Joe Biden. That is a very good place to be about six months away from the Iowa caucus on February 3, 2020. Biden seems to have a floor of about one-fourth of the Democratic primary electorate, and the highest he's ever polled for the Democratic nomination, according to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, is 34 percent. That means most Democrats are looking for an alternative to Biden.

If Elizabeth Warren wins the Iowa Caucus, she will have a strong case to make to New Hampshire first-in-the-nation-primary voters that she's the progressive alternative who can beat Biden. As the senator from neighboring Massachusetts, she'll have New England home turf advantage over Biden, too. Then comes South Carolina, where Biden has strong support from black Democrats, giving him an advantage. However, people like to vote for winners. Winning the first two early states would signal to progressives that Warren is the candidate who can beat Biden, and from there it's a question of whether or not there are more progressive voters than Biden voters in the Democratic Party.

If there were more Biden voters than progressive voters, he wouldn't be polling under 50 percent.

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