The shutdown fight puts Dems in a terrible spot

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) broke through D.C.’s holiday sleepiness Monday when news broke that he was planning to attach an act barring noncitizens from voting in federal elections to a short-term spending bill that would fund the government until March.

D.C. conservatives were thrilled. The move stands out in a speakership that’s largely avoided big fights, and it’s also a tactic conservatives in both chambers have called for repeatedly. “Blaze News Tonight” debuted just after the SAVE Act passed the House with five Democratic votes. On the inaugural show, SAVE Act sponsor Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) called for Republicans to force the Democrats’ hand by doing just this. Shortly after, former President Donald Trump endorsed Lee’s suggestion.

Reporters arguing Republicans have no chance of success aren’t internalizing that the political ground has shifted so greatly outside Washington that Harris is now promising to finish the border wall.

Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), however, does not want a shutdown fight. He thinks Republicans lose whenever they happen. His problem is that the stance doesn’t just put him against the House, his colleagues in the Senate, and the nominee but the Republican donor class, among whom support for passing the bill before the November elections runs strong.

Within his conference, McConnell is arguing that by attaching the SAVE Act in the House version, Republicans open themselves up to Democrats attaching the John Lewis Voting Rights Act using Senate Rule 22, which allows senators to attach “germane” amendments.

That’s a stretch, however. The rules are very strict; the SAVE Act is very narrow; the John Lewis Voting Rights Act is massive and would overhaul law beyond federal elections. Since it's not germane, Republicans should be able to block the maneuver.

The truth is that McConnell is worried about the two Republican Senate candidates he’s backed: Tim Sheehy in Montana and Bernie Moreno in Ohio. Both are in competitive races against endangered Democratic incumbents in red-leaning states. McConnell has stacked his resources (and his plan for retaking the Senate) on winning these races and doesn’t want to hand either Democrat a lifeline by allowing them to vote for the SAVE Act.

But doesn’t that argument expose how devastating the SAVE Act is to Democratic messaging? It’s fine and well for Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to argue against it and keep his job with New York voters, but independents and Democrats alike have broadly turned on illegal immigration.

Those reporters arguing Republicans have no chance of success aren’t internalizing that the political ground has shifted so greatly outside Washington that Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign is now promising to finish the border wall.

“If the House passes the SAVE Act, I'll be darn curious to see what Chuck Schumer’s response will be,” Lee told Blaze News. “I know publicly Democrats have said they don’t want that in there, but I would love to see them publicly defend any moves they make at that point to try to strip it out and, if they can’t strip it out, how they would justify not passing that [continuing resolution] simply because the SAVE Act is in it.”

Protecting the integrity of American elections is also a winning message, and Democrats trying to argue there are already laws against it, etc., find themselves in territory traditionally familiar to Republicans: arguing policy technicalities against a politically popular message. That’s a very hard fight to win.

If Republicans push the fight, the number of Democrats who voted for the SAVE Act last time will likely increase, and in the Senate, Schumer will need every man he’s got to hit the 51 votes needed to strip the SAVE Act from the House’s legislation. That means pushing his embattled incumbents to make unpopular votes. He wants to keep the Senate as much as Republicans want to take it, so in the end, there’s a real chance he’ll let Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) defect.

The Republicans have Democrats in a hard place. The fight is a winner, but much will depend on how firmly they’re willing to stand. Will Johnson pass the short-term budget and SAVE Act next week when the House returns to D.C., then adjourn and leave town until Schumer is compelled to act? In an election year, that could work.

With McConnell on his way out of leadership in November, his power to stop it is weakened. Still, brinksmanship requires steely nerves. It’s the Grand Old Party’s move. Will Johnson blink? Will Senate Republicans fold? Watch closely. We’ll have the answer soon enough.

“If progressives really want so badly to have noncitizens voting,” Lee said, “then they’re going to have to say so.”

Blaze News: McConnell opposes efforts to tie proof-of-citizenship voting bill to budget resolution that would avoid gov't shutdown

The Wall Street Journal: Harris is still trying to rebuild Biden’s winning 2020 coalition

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