The coming Gavin Newsom-Kamala Harris free-for-all

As the 81-year-old Joe Biden runs for re-election, Democratic donors are already weighing the idea of his political successor. Who will it be? Vice President Kamala Harris or California Governor Gavin Newsom? I detail the relationship between Harris and Newsom in my new book, “Amateur Hour: Kamala Harris in the White House.”

The 2024 election is nine months away, but the Democratic primary race for 2028 has already begun. Since Biden endorsed changing the Democratic Party rules to make South Carolina the first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary, guess who showed up last week to campaign?

If Biden survives and wins re-election in November, Harris has a very real chance of becoming the 47th president of the United States.

Gavin Newsom insisted he was only on hand to support Biden. Nevertheless, California’s governor rubbed shoulders with some of the most powerful Democrats in the Palmetto State and regaled a group of predominantly black voters with how he frequently communicates with rap legend and entrepreneur Snoop Dogg. (For some reason, however, Newsom made no mention of drafting Snoop to coax people into supporting his lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic.)

Nevertheless, Newsom has embraced Biden in an almost comical fashion, after finally ending speculation that he would challenge the president in the primaries this year.

“Who in their right mind would want to run when you have someone of such esteem as our incumbent president?” Newsom told an MSNBC reporter after a campaign appearance. Asked about his own political ambitions, he quickly shifted gears and spoke glowingly about Biden. “Talk about loyalty,” he added. “I’ll go to the ends of the earth for this guy, I really would. I’m not making that up.”

With messaging like that, Newsom already seems more comfortable selling President Biden than Kamala Harris, Biden's vice president. Harris tries to pretend in interviews that Biden is “very much alive” and “tireless in terms of working,” but her insistence rings hollow as she waits just a heartbeat or a stroke away from the presidency.

A decades-old rivalry

The looming competition between Newsom and Harris has been a feature of the last decade in California politics. Both are protégés of Willie Brown, the legendary former speaker of the state legislature and two-term San Francisco mayor. Newsom succeeded Brown in the mayor’s office the same year Harris was elected San Francisco’s district attorney. Since then, they have forged ahead in celebrity and donor circles to boost their political prospects.

Sources I spoke with in California describe Newsom and Harris as “frenemies,” cordial and saccharine in public while quietly undermining each other behind the scenes, each bracing for an ugly collision of political egos. Sometimes the cold war created friction, such as when Newsom sided with activists protesting Harris for weighing a settlement with the banks during the 2008 mortgage financial crisis.

California Democrats nervously watched both Harris and Newsom eyeing a 2016 campaign for governor after Jerry Brown wrapped up his final term. But suddenly four-term U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer announced her retirement, offering Harris a chance to avoid a one-on-one political knife fight with Newsom. She took it.

The rest is history. Harris ran and won the Senate seat, and Newsom won his race for governor. The inevitable clash, however, was only postponed, as the pair are competing for the mantle of leadership of the Democratic Party.

Democrats are terrified

Harris and Newsom are not without their political baggage. Harris, once touted by the media as the next Barack Obama, fell flat during her inaugural presidential campaign. After almost a year and $40 million, Harris ended her campaign before the Iowa caucus started. Her vice presidency has not inspired the country either, as she frequently spirals into word salads whenever she goes off-script.

Newsom, on the other hand, carries the weight of savaging his state by draconian coronavirus restrictions as the state’s greatest cities are overrun with homeless camps and crime. Golden State voters didn’t seem to hold the lockdowns against him, however, when they had the chance to recall him in 2021. The recall failed, and Newsom was re-elected easily in 2022. But California is not America.

The future of the Newsom-Harris rivalry depends mostly on Joe Biden’s health. Democrats are terrified that the elderly Biden might not make it to November. If that happens, expect a messy fight among donors and party elites about who should replace him.

Everyone will have an idea of who is the best candidate to run against Donald Trump. Harris is not at the top of the list for most elites or even on the list at all. Many prominent Democrats in Washington, D.C., and a great many donors in America’s wealthiest cities are utterly dazzled by Newsom’s talent. Harris has disappointed them, but few criticize her for fear of being branded as racist and sexist.

The fact is that if Biden survives and wins re-election in November, Harris has a very real chance of becoming the 47th president of the United States if at some point in his second term the family finally concedes it is time to step aside.

If Harris takes power, she could even run for re-election in 2028, as inconceivable as it seems today. I understand the skepticism. But recall that no one ever thought Biden, a laughingstock in Washington when he was vice president, would ever run for president, let alone win and run for a second term.

If Harris runs in 2028, she also has the advantage of competing in the South Carolina primary instead of Iowa and New Hampshire. The same voters who rescued Biden’s 2020 campaign may be asked to choose between Harris, the nation’s first black woman vice president who proved herself an ineffectual amateur, or Newsom, the smooth-talking governor burdened by the consequences of his leftist policies.