No war but trade war!

Much of the American economy is fake. It’s illusionary wealth, built on a devil’s bargain that's traded our families and our future for the present. Tackling China is essential to righting this arrangement, and if President Trump is successful, he will have helped to secure the next century of American power and go down as one of the greatest presidents in our history.

To accomplish this, he’ll need to reconfigure global trade around the United States, to the exclusion of the Chinese. Trump’s problem is that our ruling elites aren’t behind him; they make a pretty penny off the current state of things. If that tide is going to turn, the White House will need a clear strategy, steadfast commitment to it, and an American people who understand the stakes and are willing to back them.

A true realignment will require discipline and commitment. It will take more than a few short months to convince the world that the United States is serious.

First: the fake economy. We still manufacture things in the United States, but we don’t really have a lot of exports — unless you count our dollar. Our dollar goes all over the planet, and in exchange for that, we get a whole lot of sparkly things from all over the world. It seems like a great deal! We print paper and send it away, and foreigners send us actual goods in return.

But there’s a catch.

That money doesn’t vanish overseas. It comes back. Some of those dollars buy U.S. treasuries, which help finance the staggering debt we rack up through this arrangement. But the foreign capital doesn’t stop there. It also buys up U.S. assets — stocks, land, houses, factories, and commercial real estate.

We’re not just exporting dollars. We’re importing dependency.

Ever wonder why it’s so hard to buy your first house? This is why: A massive swirl of that money we sent away is coming back to buy houses and raising costs across the board.

In plain terms, you’re not just bidding against other families when you buy a house. You’re competing with Chinese factory owners armed with far more capital and far fewer constraints.

That has to end. But it won’t be painless. This will require a controlled demolition of the current model.

China is the worst offender. It churns out mountains of cheap — and often stolen — goods, but it doesn’t consume most of what it makes. Instead, China ships it here in exchange for U.S. dollars, which it uses to build more factories, hire more workers, and send even more products back our way for more dollars. It’s a self-perpetuating loop.

China needs us more than we need it. Breaking that cycle will mean forcing a massive realignment of global trade. In short, China is an addict. We’re the fix.

Worse, the Chinese are bad actors. They lie, cheat, and steal. Let’s take solar panels for example: China makes almost all of them, despite having developed and invented virtually zero of the technology required. We did that. We invented solar panels and developed them, but the Chinese copied and stole the tech, then manufactured them more cheaply than we can, undercut our own industry massively, and took the whole thing over.

The solution isn’t as simple as slapping tariffs on China. Joe Biden tried that — and China found a workaround. It funneled its products through Vietnam, slapped on new labels, and sent them right back to American shores. This is why the Trump administration targeted the allegedly anti-Chinese Vietnamese with tariffs.

China pulled the same stunt when the first Trump administration cracked down. This time, it used Mexico. Chinese goods flowed across the Pacific, got relabeled “Made in Mexico,” and were shipped straight into the U.S. — with a markup.

In other words, there’s no quick fix. Untangling this mess will require a complete reordering of the global trade system, with the United States leading the way. Washington must gather as many allies as possible under one roof — and get them aligned with our trade rules, explicitly excluding China from the arrangement.

That starts at home with Canada and Mexico. Both must accept American trade rules and shut China out of their supply chains. But it can’t end there — which is why more than 70 countries coming to the table for trade talks this past week matters more than the headlines let on.

It’s also why Liberation Day was so important. Instead of going from country to country with a pitch, there are now over 75 countries coming to the United States — racing to be the first in line to negotiate. And China never even had a chance to bribe, threaten, or cajole, like it might under a more normal rollout. Now is the time!

China won’t like any of this. But the real problem for America’s future is that our own ruling class won’t either.

The wealthy — especially the Baby Boomers — made fortunes off this lopsided arrangement. They sent paper abroad and watched Chinese purchasing power inflate their 401(k)s and the broader stock market. That wealth is now propped up by the very system that’s hollowing out America. Our elites are both figuratively and literally invested in the status quo. And they’re willing to protect it — even if it means sacrificing the nation’s future.

Then there’s Congress. You’d expect lawmakers to back any effort that secures American strength for the next century. But most of them serve two masters: the donor class and the voters. The donors demand continued profits. The voters will feel the short-term pain of economic realignment. So Congress punts — again.

Expect the anti-Trump media to seize on every consequence of a trade war with China. Imports make up less than 15% of U.S. GDP, but prices will rise on everyday items — school supplies, baby clothes, and more. Businesses that rely on Chinese components will feel the squeeze. Reporters will find small business owners in every congressional district and turn them into cautionary tales just in time for campaign season. If Republicans looked rattled this week, just wait.

Meanwhile, Xi Jinping doesn’t face elections or a hostile Congress. He only has to worry about staying in power. If his factories can’t keep the masses employed, he faces an existential threat. And he knows it.

Some in Trump’s circle understand this dynamic. Vice President JD Vance seems to grasp what’s at stake. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might. Trade counselor Peter Navarro definitely does. But what about the president himself? Trump seems to get it — but the real question is whether he’s prepared to endure the short-term fallout.

Will he follow this through to the bitter end, or was last week’s tariff blitz just another round of “The Art of the Deal”? If the goal is simply to move more Teslas and iPhones in China, then none of this will matter.

A true realignment will require discipline and commitment. It will take more than a few short months to convince the world that the United States is serious about a new way of conducting global trade. Can the White House maintain the pressure for a year or more? Far from a lame duck, by all accounts the president is more committed than ever to cursing the torpedoes and charging forward in his agenda. But is this it?

It could be. Making that successful will take a direct pitch to the American people that this will take sacrifice, but it is a fight for the future of America and her peoples. If he takes this path and succeeds, he’ll have earned his place on Mount Rushmore. If he wavers or fails, it will have been our last chance in a generation.

Oren Cass: This instability may be worth it. Here’s why.

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