Elite aspirants, your future is at stake: Pick a side

In his 2023 book “End Times,” Peter Turchin argued that America’s social pyramid has become top-heavy, with too many elites and “elite aspirants” competing for too few positions in the upper reaches of business and politics. As the equilibrium between elites and the majority leans too far in favor of elites, serious political instability becomes inevitable. Elite aspirants always outnumber elites, but the number of aspirants in America today is at an all-time high. With fewer opportunities and diminishing returns, the group has become frustrated and desperate.

Turchin calls this “elite overproduction,” and it’s largely responsible for our political turmoil today. Unless something changes, the three groups — elites, elite aspirants, and the majority — will be locked in a death spiral and headed for a violent political rupture.

Witnessing the uglier side of the best and brightest helped you finally see all the lies and injustices you’d bought in to as you painfully climbed that greasy pole.

By every definition of the term, I am an elite aspirant. And if you’re reading this, odds are that you are too. So I would like to address my fellow elite aspirants, particularly those of you who don’t know how to make sense of this treacherous political landscape.

Maybe you’re like me, a sharp kid from the lower middle class who left a deep-red area for a fancy education and a good job, and now you’re doing better than the folks back home. Maybe you’re like me and the shock of going somewhere from nowhere had you reeling, and you had to learn the hard way that the humble values you grew up with, even your patriotism, aren’t respected elsewhere.

Maybe you felt like an alien imposter, and you slowly adopted the new ways of talking and thinking, always hiding your light under a bushel. Or worse, maybe you felt ashamed of where you came from and began looking down on the folks back home. Maybe you were scared that if you truly “brought your whole self to work,” you’d strain relationships, miss opportunities, and risk sliding down that greasy pole, right back to where you came from.

Seeing the conflict for what it is

Then Trump came along. It didn’t matter whether you supported him or not, but maybe, like me, you were surprised to find that almost everyone around you suddenly despised him with a relentless intensity that you couldn’t understand. Maybe the histrionics, resentment, and denunciations made you uncomfortable, especially when you saw how much the folks back home loved and admired him.

And maybe after a while you became a little resentful yourself, watching otherwise friendly and intelligent people hurl invective at Trump’s supporters, mocking them for their backwardness and stupidity while questioning their humanity and comparing them to terrorists and fifth columnists.

Maybe it finally started to get under your skin, too, as you realized they weren’t just talking about strangers — they were talking about your grandmother and the folks back home. Maybe you began to wonder what these otherwise friendly and intelligent people really thought about you. If you’re like me, witnessing the uglier side of the best and brightest helped you finally see all the lies and injustices you’d bought in to as you painfully climbed that greasy pole.

If you’re like me, maybe you realized that you’d adopted the hubris of a hostile caste and that by doing so, you had betrayed your own values and the people who love you most. Maybe you finally started listening again, and beyond the bombast and noise, you heard truth ringing, just as it did when you were young.

Maybe you're like me and it all came crashing down, and you noticed that the red-hot hatred and suffocating fear provided a convenient smoke screen for a failed elite whose sins were far greater than Trump's. And maybe through all the fire-and-brimstone sermons, you finally saw the naked face of tyranny: a lawless regime — greedy, bloodthirsty, and, above all, undemocratic.

Maybe you saw the regime lie, break every rule, and violate every norm to destroy Trump, making a mockery of the Constitution and the basic principles of democratic government. Maybe you saw all the leaks, lawfare, censorship, surveillance, and “election fortification” as little more than good old-fashioned corruption, just with better packaging. Maybe you came to realize that the campaign against Trump was also an assault on the folks back home and their right to self-government.

Maybe you’re like me and now see this as a contest of liberty against tyranny, freedom against slavery, and government by, with, and for the people against oligarchy. Maybe you see that it’s not really about Trump, JD Vance, or Robert F. Kennedy Jr., but about the future of America as a republic, rather than a permanent bureaucracy where a special caste controls our most fundamental rights and privileges.

The coming defections

If you’re an elite aspirant, like me, you might be hesitant to wage war against the same culture, institutions, and governing philosophy that you’ve pledged fealty to. Maybe you’re afraid of ostracizing yourself, sacrificing your career, and sliding down that greasy pole. Maybe you feel there aren’t adequate incentives.

I’m not here to tell you what’s best for your career and personal life, but we’re at an inflection point. Whoever wins this contest will decide whether America can endure as a republic with a right to self-government or whether a permanent bureaucratic tyranny will replace it.

You might think it won’t affect you, but I promise it will — and if not you, then your children and the good folks back home. Hard work, creativity, and merit are how outsiders like us succeed; without them, you don’t climb the greasy pole. But the coming tyranny is deeply hostile to these values. It demands obedience above all, and even then, obedience will only take you as far as the regime permits. If you’re a spiritual bureaucrat, this may appeal to you, but if you’re like me — young, hungry, innovative, and willing to live and die for something greater — you will suffer tremendously under this new system.

This regime, which feels so threatened by Trump, offers you quotas, castes, censors, and surveillance. It promises to punish and reward according to its own priorities, not yours. Most of all, it guarantees that your most basic freedoms will be outsourced to some anointed caste or impersonal process, regardless of your hard work, creativity, or merit.

If you’re already struggling under the weight of a burdensome status quo, remember that it doesn’t have to be this way. The values you grew up with still matter, and they will serve you well once this boot is off your neck. But I also hope you understand the stakes and the consequences of inaction. You must defect.

We’ve already seen several key elite defections — Elon Musk, JD Vance, RFK Jr., and many more. These defections will only accelerate as we move closer to November.

So now is the time to pick a side. It isn’t about Trump, and it isn’t even about the folks back home. It’s about you and your future, and I hope you’ll join us.