Democrats are falling back on three crucial copes to calm their fears

Team Blue is jittery. Republicans risk overconfidence for sure, but Democrats risk disaster, and they know it. Vice President Kamala Harris might act tough at her rallies, but you can hear a different message from her surrogates on the campaign trail and in the media. There, you’ll catch increasingly shrill appeals to race and to racial debts — and the hopeful expectation of a silent hero who will save the day.

First: race. Long a cornerstone of Democrats' politics, racial fealty, animus, and vengeance have played increasingly loud roles. Still-alive President Joe Biden infamously told a podcast host in 2020 that if you weren’t voting for him, “you ain’t black.” After the coup, that job fell to his boss, former President Barack Obama.

We live in an age when those fallen champions of silence, librarians, are hosting gay drag shows for kids. Forgive me if I doubt the silent Democrat thesis.

Obama dutifully answered, heading first to Philadelphia and then beyond to tell black men they have a duty to vote for Harris. It was sold as tough love from black America’s father figure, or something to that effect, but it hasn’t gone over so well.

“As Obama campaigns for Harris, he has a tough crowd among young black men,” read a Monday headline from NBC. “Obama’s comments reveal what the Democratic Party thinks about the black electorate,” an op-ed in The Hill blared. “Kwame Kilpatrick says Obama is ‘not the messiah,’” reads one Detroit News piece.

“Why,” a report by the Brookings Institute asked, “are black men mad at Obama?” You might accidentally get an answer from "The Daily Show," which is still on the air and last week featured a joke about the 44th president “grounding a whole demographic” to whoops and applause from the largely white audience.

Speaking of white people, they also have a racial duty to vote for Harris. “White folks,” pro-Kamala CNN commentator Angela Rye explained over the weekend, can’t be allowed to “escape the accountability that they must face for not showing up to save democracy themselves.” The anchor didn’t seem to have any problem with this.

Earlier in the week, “justice correspondent” Elie Mystal condemned white people in a column the Nation thought was OK to run, calling us “the ‘problem’ in this country” and accusing us of “holding this country back,” opposing democracy, and forming a “global force destroying the environment of this earth.”

Speaking of problems with the country, former Vice President Dick Cheney’s daughter returned to the trail this week to assuage nervous Democrats with the promise that her friends are secretly voting for Harris: the “quiet Democrat voter.”

Search your memory for any time over the past 20 years and ask yourself if you can think of a situation in national politics, popular culture, or your local book group where Democrats have been shamed into some kind of self-aware silence. Think back over the “IN THIS HOUSE WE BELIEVE” yard signs, the “THIS IS NOT NORMAL” bumper stickers, or those rich Hillary Clinton supporters in “p***y hats.”

We live in an age when those fallen champions of silence, librarians, are hosting gay drag shows for children. Forgive me if I doubt the silent Democrat thesis. But this is the state of Democratic coping: racial allegiance, racial debt, and “quiet Democrats.” Best of luck.

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IN OTHER NEWS

5 key House seats Republicans are likely to flip

By Rebeka Zeljko

While the Republicans’ majority is increasingly narrow, there are currently five competitive blue seats that may help the GOP hold on to the House.

The seats of Democratic Reps. Mary Peltola of Alaska, Yadira Caraveo of Colorado, Elissa Slotkin of Michigan, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington, and Jared Golden of Maine have all been ranked as toss-ups by Cook Political Report.

In 2022, Peltola was the first Democratic candidate to have been elected to Alaska’s sole congressional seat in more than half a century, after the state adopted a ranked-choice voting system, which allows voters to rank their preferred candidates rather than a typical two-party primary system. As a result, Republican candidates Nick Begich and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin split the GOP vote, allowing Peltola to flip the seat blue for the first time since 1970.

Despite the ranked-choice system, Peltola is facing a challenge from just one Republican candidate, Nick Begich, after Nancy Dahlstrom dropped out to consolidate the GOP vote. Combined with Alaska’s reliably red voting history, recent polls from the National Republican Congressional Committee put Peltola at an electoral disadvantage.

Peltola is also featured on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s “frontline members” list consisting of the most competitive blue seats.

Peltola’s fellow frontliner, Caraveo, is also at risk of losing re-election to her Republican challenger. While one September poll puts the Colorado Democrat at a narrow three-point edge, a recent poll from early October puts her in a dead heat with Republican challenger Gabe Evans. Colorado's 8th Congressional District is also perfectly split between Republicans and Democrats, according to Cook Political Report.

Caraveo won her seat in 2022 against Republican candidate Barbara Kirkmeyer by less than 1%.

Since Slotkin opted to run for Senate, Democratic candidate Curtis Hertel and Republican challenger Tom Barrett have gone head-to-head for the seat. Slotkin flipped the longtime red seat blue in 2022, making the +2 Republican district a potential layup. Polling is also trending in Republicans' favor, with Barrett ahead of Hertel by four to six points.

Slotkin secured her seat in Michigan's 7th Congressional District in 2022 by 5.4 points.

Perez, who is also featured on the DCCC’s list of vulnerable frontliners, is set to face off against Republican candidate Joe Kent for the second time. Although Perez managed to flip the seat in 2022, she is currently polling dead even against Kent in the +5 Republican district, which may reinstate a red streak in Washington's 3rd Congressional District.

Perez, who has refrained from endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris over former President Donald Trump, defeated Kent in 2022 by less than 1 percentage point after former Republican Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler retired.

Golden, who has served Maine’s congressional district for three consecutive terms, is also facing a tight race against Republican candidate Austin Theriault. Despite being a +6 Republican district, Golden won his seat by a 1% margin in 2018 and just over 6% in 2020 and 2022.

Despite his historical electoral advantage, a recent poll shows Golden at a three-point deficit against Theriault.