Are Democrats really poised to overcome Trump’s momentum?

Michael Lind has written a provocative commentary, partly in response to John Judis and Ruy Texeira’s recent book, “Where Have All the Democrats Gone?” Lind would have us believe that the Democratic Party will do better in November than its naysayers suggest. Contrary to what Texiera-Judis maintain, namely that the Democrats have lost their traditional working-class base and may no longer be flourishing among racial minorities, the Dems supposedly have the wind at their back. The only reliable Republican constituencies, we are told, are white evangelicals and Mormons; and both groups are dwindling in number relative to other demographics.

Lind also believes, correctly, that black people and Jews have been the most faithful Democratic constituencies, and he believes these loyalties are no less strong now than before. If Donald Trump gained in the last election about 31% of the Jewish vote (thanks largely to the Orthodox) and somewhere above 10% of the black vote, that’s what he will likely win this year. Among Hispanic voters, allegedly, Trump will not do much better than he did in 2020.

Republicans shouldn’t get overconfident about their chances for victory. Also, black people and suburban women may be exceedingly hard to push rightward.

Moreover, because of Democratic support among “secularized” Americans, especially those with leftist social views, Biden should easily prevail against Trump. Indeed, the only reason we’re giving Trump a chance, according to Lind, is that Biden is such a doddering candidate. But that won’t matter, given the Democrats’ far greater electoral strength.

The reason I’m responding to this analysis is that I’ve received notes indicating that Lind and I have taken the same position. Neither one of us, it is believed, hold out hope for a Republican victory. Furthermore, both of us view the alliance of the woke Left, the media, and urban black people as too powerful for the Trump campaign to overcome.

For those who believe that Lind and I are making the same prediction, let me assure them that they’re wrong. Unlike Lind, I don’t believe, barring lots of dirty tricks, the Democrats are inescapably headed for a November victory; or that the Democratic share of the votes of certain demographics is fixed in stone. What I have argued is that Republicans shouldn’t get overconfident about their chances for victory. Also, black people and suburban women, I have insisted, may be exceedingly hard to push rightward.

At this point, it seems that Trump will do better among Hispanics than he did in 2020. He may also make inroads among non-Orthodox Jewish voters because of his unswervingly pro-Israel stance and because the Democrats are saddled with pro-Hamas voters.

Trump also appears to be increasing his share of black male voters by engaging both the surging crime wave and economic issues. Although I’ve been deeply skeptical about the GOP’s ability to do well in urban black districts, there may be at least modest gains to be made here. Overall, I think that Texeira and Judis, both of whom are left-leaning Democrats, are describing the electoral situation of their party more accurately than Lind.

Lind may not, however, be entirely off course if the Democrats can make abortion and other social issues work to their advantage among certain voting blocs.

The problem here is that inflation, overrun borders, and high crime seem to be overshadowing wedge issues, and the Republicans at the national level are letting the abortion issue go, at least for now, since it has become for them electorally toxic. The social left has a definite PR advantage over its opponents in mobilizing those who favor unlimited abortion rights. But without the effective use of that issue, depicting Republicans convincingly as MAGA terrorists, and perhaps millions of mysterious ballots turning up in suspicious circumstances, it may be hard for the Democrats to win.

What makes Lind’s presentation unnecessarily unsettling is his transparent contempt for socially traditional Christians. Who are all those Republicans he complains about who are “trying to repeal the New Deal” and who are taking “extremist positions on abortion”? In such hyperbolic fits, Lind gives away his own leftist politics. He also throws around the term “secularization,” which seems for Lind a badge of social acceptability. It may be proof in his case that someone is not trying to return to the Eisenhower era.

Obviously, letting go of traditional religious beliefs will affect political choices but may not be all-determining if other factors come into play. Those who don’t attend church services may still vote for Trump because they don’t like the surging crime rate or the Democrats’ discrimination against white males.

Religiously skeptical voters may also be dismayed by what Biden has done to overwhelm us with costly, disruptive illegal aliens who are already being wooed as new Democratic voters.

Lind may be understating the white Catholic support for Trump. According to a Pew Research survey, in 2020 white Catholics who attended Mass at least monthly gave Trump 63% of their votes; even non-Mass-attending white Catholics gave him 53%. Biden does have a problem with religious Catholics who are understandably appalled by his radical moral positions. In all probability, he’ll lose that demographic in November by a wide, wide margin.