A ‘once-in-a-lifetime’ budget reform bill becomes the joke of the decade

Congress is about to pass what was billed as a once-in-a-generation budget reconciliation bill to rein in inflation. Instead, Republicans have delivered more spending, more debt, and a grab bag of random, inefficient tax cuts. After promising to slash the Biden-era debt explosion, GOP leaders have produced a plan with no major reforms and a laughable 0.004% spending cut over 10 years — after increasing spending.

Conservatives reluctantly backed the House reconciliation bill under pressure from President Trump. The bill didn’t promise immediate savings, but it instructed committees to identify between $1.5 trillion and $2 trillion in mandatory spending cuts over a decade. In exchange, Republicans agreed to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion and handed out $4.5 trillion in tax cuts — largely just an extension of existing tax breaks with a few extras tacked on.

After the most consequential election of our lifetime, conservatives are simply asking for one thing: a reconciliation bill that actually means something.

But there’s no repeal of Obamacare. No serious health care reform. No direct strategy to move people off welfare. Nothing resembling a bold or transformational policy. The top-line number might nudge future welfare reform, but that’s speculative at best. Meanwhile, the bill greenlights $300 billion in new spending for the Department of Defense and the Department of Homeland Security — without meaningful offsets or reforms.

A Senate bait and switch

This was a modest plan — far too modest — given the projected $89 trillion in federal spending over the next decade. That estimate assumes no recessions (despite the fact that we’re likely entering one now) and no major natural disasters, which occur almost annually.

Even under those rosy assumptions, the House budget accepts more than $20 trillion in new deficits over 10 years. And it banks on implausible economic growth, driven not by structural reforms, but by the simple extension of current tax rates and a few marginal changes — such as excluding tips, Social Security benefits, and overtime from taxation and boosting state and local tax deductions. These are hardly the hallmarks of a pro-growth revolution.

Still, conservatives recognized that with their so-called once-in-a-lifetime shot at a “new golden age,” this underwhelming package might be the best they could get.

Then came the Senate with a bait and switch.

The Senate passed a bill that technically allows the House to keep working under its budget instructions, but it directs Senate committees to cut just $4 billion. That’s billion with a “B,” not trillion with a “T.” In a projected $89 trillion budget, $4 billion represents a pathetic 0.004%.

Meanwhile, the same bill raises the debt ceiling by $5 trillion — the largest increase in U.S. history — and authorizes $5.3 trillion in tax cuts. Of that, $3.8 trillion is classified as an extension of current rates and therefore magically excluded from being scored as a revenue loss.

Phony cuts

We always knew even the modest $1.5 trillion in proposed spending cuts over 10 years would be too much for tepid Republicans. Still, we expected them to negotiate that number down — maybe to $1 trillion. Instead, Senate Republicans came to the table with an opening bid of just $4 billion. That microscopic figure signals they have no intention of cutting more than a few hundred billion over the next decade — at most.

For perspective, that amounts to about $30 billion in cuts from an annual budget nearing $7 trillion and expected to hit $10 trillion by the end of the 10-year window.

But even those paltry cuts aren’t real.

The Senate bill already authorizes $521 billion in new, immediate spending for defense and the border. Lawmakers would need to find an equal amount in savings just to break even. As it stands, the only firm commitment in the legislation is to pile another $5.8 trillion onto the national debt — beyond Biden’s already bloated baseline.

Even under the most generous dynamic scoring — such as estimates from the Tax Foundation — the bill would still leave us with an additional $5 trillion in red ink after accounting for $710 billion in recouped revenue.

Remember, once the House agrees to adopt the Senate’s budget, it forfeits any leverage. Under budget reconciliation rules, any split in proposed spending cuts between the House and Senate committees defaults to the Senate’s numbers. That means the Senate’s meager $4 billion in cuts — not the House’s higher target — will carry the day.

The result? Republicans will effectively codify all of Biden’s spending levels. The only area left to negotiate will be tax policy — a dubious consolation, especially in an inflationary environment that demands deficit reduction.

A gift to blue states

Even that tax policy falls short. These aren’t bold, growth-oriented reforms. They’re narrow, parochial carve-outs for select workers and retirees. Worse still, Republicans plan to burn through revenue by expanding the deduction for state and local taxes.

Their top priority? Giving high earners in blue states a break.

The GOP’s moderate wing refuses to accept even a proposal to raise the SALT cap from $10,000 to $25,000. Instead, these Republicans want unlimited deductions — a gift to the wealthy in California and New York, disguised as fiscal policy.

Tax cuts aren’t the same as spending increases — they can spur economic growth. But in a time of sustained inflation, reducing the deficit matters more. Most Americans now lose more to inflation than they pay in taxes. And not all tax cuts are equal. Growth-focused policy doesn’t mean carving out special breaks for retirees, tipped workers, or high earners in blue states.

House conservatives have already taken one hit after another. At Trump’s urging, they passed a continuing resolution in December that included $200 billion in supplemental spending with no offsets. Then, they backed another CR in March — again with no cuts. Now, with budget reconciliation on the table, it’s time to make good on all those earlier compromises.

Trump should stop pressuring conservatives and instead focus on Senate Republicans. He needs to demand that Senate moderates adopt the House version of the bill.

He must also make the case — clearly and forcefully — that runaway welfare spending is a major driver of inflation. That means pushing for meaningful reforms: repealing elements of the Green New Deal, overhauling health care and welfare, and delivering tax cuts that benefit a broad base of working Americans and small businesses.

We’re not asking for much. After what was billed as the most consequential election of our lifetime, conservatives are simply asking for one thing: a reconciliation bill that actually means something.