Republicans and Winning the Minority Vote

The reaction to the Romney/Ryan loss of 2012 by many Republicans was a complete meltdown. The opinion by many on the right was that the day of reckoning had come where they needed to sway the Hispanic vote; immediately John McCain and Marco Rubio got to work on an amnesty bill and almost no one asked any questions.  To many Republicans 2016 depended on the Hispanic vote.

Unfortunately, none of that was the case. Had Mitt Romney coped Bush’s figures with Hispanic voters- between 35% and 44% depending on the exit polls you believe- Romney still would have lost. In fact had Romney received 70% of the Hispanic vote in 2012 he still would have lost. The 2012 loss had nothing to do with the Hispanics and everything to do with the Black and blue-collar white vote. The latter of which failed to come out and vote at all.

The New York Times put out a political calculator of the Electoral College results based upon racial turnout.

Analyze this, had Romney increased his percentage of the Hispanic vote to 70% he still would have lost 270 to 268.

However, had Romney increased his percentage of the Black vote to 70%, he would have won 365 to 173.

If Romney increased his percentage of the White vote to 70%, he would have won 382 to 156.

It was the overwhelming rejection by Black Americans and the apathy by White Americans that killed the Romney campaign.  Increasing these two voting groups would have set him to electoral victory.

Republicans need to focus more on reaching the needs of working class Americans, both White and Black.   It is the working class that the presidency is won.

Now obviously Republicans capturing 70% of either the Black or White vote would be difficult.  The point is true, there was no reasonable Hispanic outreach that could have saved the Mitt Romney campaign in 2012.

The idea of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan running for ticket didn’t appeal to blue-collar America and rightfully so.  However working-class White America could be on the GOP’s side if they are convinced the GOP is on their side.

As for the Black vote, several Republicans have succeeded in attaining a sizeable number of their vote in the last two decades.

Michael Steele

Before he was the Chairman of the RNC, Michael Steele ran for the US Senate in Maryland in 2006.  It was a terrible year for Republicans as the backlash to the war in Iraq took its toll on the party.  Despite running a very strong campaign, Steele had a respectable loss of 54% to 44%. Nonetheless, Steele was able to capture 25% of the African-American vote in Maryland.

Arlene Specter

Before defecting from the party in order to avoid a primary from now Senator Pat Toomey, Specter was a Republican for 44 years.  In 2004, last re-election bid as a Republican, Specter captured a decisive 25% of the African-American vote in Pennsylvania. He went on to win all but four counties in the state and a total of 52.6% of the popular vote.

Arnold Schwarzenegger

The former body-builder, former Kennedy-in-law, was up for re-election in 2006 in one of the bluest states in the country.  He was re-elected by a huge 17-point margin and won 27% of the Black vote in California.   Schwarzenegger also won 39% of the Hispanic vote and a huge 62% of the Asian vote and 63% of the White Vote.

George Voinovich

Voinovich started his career in politics in the 1970’s in Cleveland, Ohio.  After spending time as a mayor, congressman, lieutenant governor and governor before he ran for the senate in 1998.  It was during re-election in 2004 that Voinovich captured 32% of the African American vote in Ohio.  He won every county in the state, trampling his opponent 64% to 36%.  Voinovich never lost an election in his life.

Dino Rossi

In his first bid for the Governorship of Washington State, Dino Rossi lost by 129 votes.  It was one of the closest statewide elections in United States history.   Although Rossi lost, he captured 37% of the Washington State’s African-American vote and 31 of Washington States 39 counties.

Jodi Rell

Jodi Rell was the Lieutenant Governor who found herself in charge when her boss, then Governor John Rowland was found in a corruption scandal.  Many would expect someone in that position to be a lame-duck Governor, not Jodi.  She became one of the most popular governors in Connecticut history.  She won a landslide re-election in 2006, garnering 63% of the vote.  She won every county and an astounding 40% of the Black vote and 45% of the Hispanic vote.

Mike Huckabee

The Fox News host was Governor of Arkansas from 1996 to 2007.  It was his 1998 re-election campaign though where he won nearly 60% of the vote and nearly 48% of African-American vote.

Republicans would do well to reach out to any and everyone who can find a home in their party no matter what their race is.  However, if Republicans are looking for the minority vote to win, it’s no the Hispanic vote. The only way for Republicans to get back in the White House is with the blue collared and Black voters.

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